This photo taken on March 29, 2023 shows the White House in Washington Dc. [Photo/Xinhua]

The US economy could be approaching a dangerous precipice, and it's not dueto war, pandemic, or a collapse in global demand. This threat is coming fromwithin - a barrage of reckless tariffs.On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller issued a starkwarning: The Donald Trump administration's sweeping trade policies are ashock to the US economy-one of the largest in decades.

In remarks to the Certified Financial Analysts Society of St. Louis, Waller madeit clear that the risks posed by runaway inflation are now overshadowed by adeeper, more pressing concern: recession.In his words, 'the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalatinginflation'. That's a startling admission from a policymaker whose job is to keepboth inflation and growth in balance

The damage is already measurable. The Yale Budget Lab, in a series of reportsupdated on Thursday, estimates that all tariffs enacted in 2025, combined withretaliatory measures from trading partners, could slash US GDP by 1.1 percentand push prices up by nearly 3 percent.

Those numbers, along with the macroeconomic uncertainty introduced by thetariff war, translate to slower growth, rising unemployment - potentially tonear 5 percent by next year according to Waller's projection - reducedinvestment interest, and less money in the pockets of US citizens

Waller, generally considered a moderate Republican, clearly pointed this out. lfthe economy slows dramatically, even with inflation above the Fed's 2 percenttarget, the central bank may be forced to cut interest rates sooner and moreaggressively than expected.

Economists have already sounded the alarm. Larry Summers, the formerTreasury secretary, estimates a better-than-even chance - 'six in 10 orbetter'- that the US will enter a recession this year.

What makes this moment uniquely dangerous, Summers argues, is that theturmoil is self-inflicted. Unlike past crises triggered by external shocks, thisinstability stems from deliberate policy choices

Ray Dalio, one of the world's most respected investors, also warned that theUS economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, driven in large part by thedisruptive effects of the Trump administration's tariff policies.

Dalio cautioned that erratic and unpredictable tariffs can severely disruptglobal supply chains, acting like 'throwing rocks into the production system.'Such disruptions, he argued, would significantly undermine global efficiency

and drive up costs across the board.It is notable that the founder of Bridgewater Associates likened the policychaos to 'throwing rocks into the production system'. lt's a vivid metaphor, andunfortunately, an accurate one.

Tariffs may make for strong sound bites. They don't make for strongeconomies. The warning signs are flashing. Whether Washington will heed themremains to be seen.